Vietnamese Banking Stocks: Investment Opportunities and Risks
4/19/2018 3:00:00 PM
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Vietnamese Banking Stocks: Investment Opportunities and Risks
After going through the difficult period of 2008-2012, the Vietnamese banking system has come back strong since 2013, supported by a gradually improving economic environment and the recovery of the real estate market especially. Over the last 4 years from 2013 – 2017, credit outstanding balance has been increasing at the CAGR of 17.2%, of which personal loans grew by 40.8% annually as calculated by StoxPlus. Consumer finance companies also experienced a strong growth of loan book at an annual average of 66.5% over the same period and are now considered as "counterweights" to the traditional banking model.
These days the banking industry are reaping impressive results. There used to be only 9 listed banks with total market capitalization at USD11.8 billion in 2013. Now, 15 banks are listed on the two stock exchanges, with total capitalization of USD40 billion, accounting for 21.5% of total market capitalization. Stock price of banking sector increased by 73.2% in 2017 and recently rose by 40% in the first quarter of 2018, while the VN-Index was at 48% and 19.3% respectively.
By 30th March 2018, the banks’ stocks are trading at 3.2x its Book Value (P/BV) and 20.3x its trailing earnings (P/E). We also witnessed a number of M&A transactions between foreign partners and consumer finance companies, where they and their licenses are priced by very impressive valuation multiples.
In the coming months, market players and the investor community are looking forward to a series of listing from banks and consumer finance companies, namely Techcombank (TCB), Tien Phong Bank (TPB), Oriental Commercial Bank (OCB), and FE Credit, etc. Some of them have just had soaring share prices on the OTC market.
In this context, some questions are raised:
What’s to expect in event?
- Banking sector landscape: key growth drivers in 2018 and a near future
- Major policies and its implications to banking stocks and IPOs
- Key investment considerations in listed stocks and upcoming listings
- Opportunities in selected banking stocks
- Mr. Nguyen Tu Anh, Deputy Director General, Monetary Policy Department, SBV
- Mr. Kalidas Ghose, Vice Chairman & CEO at FE Credit
- Mr. Nguyen Dinh Tung, CEO, Orient Commercial Bank (OCB)
- Mr. Le Anh Tuan, Deputy CIO and Head of Research at Dragon Capital
- Mr. Nguyen Quang Thuan, CEO, StoxPlus (Moderator)
Mr. Nguyen Tu Anh
Deputy Director General, Monetary Policy Department, State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)
Mr. Nguyen Tu Anh is Deputy Director General of Monetary Policy Department, State Bank of Vietnam. He was a senior researcher at Central Institute for Economic Management (Hanoi, Vietnam), and Director of Department Macroeconomic Policy. Dr. Tu Anh obtained his PhD in Economics from Paris School of Economics (Paris 1 University, France), M.A. in Economic Theory and Econometrics from Midi-Pyrénée School of Economics, Université Toulouse 1 (Toulouse, France), M.A. of Development Economics from Institute of Social Studies (the Hague, the Netherlands) & National Economics University (Hanoi, Vietnam). Mr. Tu Anh is in charge of economic researches for building and coordinating monetary policy in the State Bank of Vietnam and with other agencies. Academically, Mr. Tu Anh has published extensively in local and international academic journals including Journal of Economic Theory, Journal of Mathematical of Population Studies. He has been serving as a leader and/or key member of various Vietnamese government’s consultancy & research projects on monetary and macro-economic policies, including master plan for restructuring the economy in period 2013-2020.
Mr. Kalidas Ghose
Vice Chairman & CEO at Vietnam Prosperity Bank Finance Company, Ltd. (FE CREDIT)
A Retail Banking and Consumer Finance veteran with nearly 30 years of experience with global leaders in financial services across various geographies, Kalidas was appointed as Head of the Consumer Finance Division in April 2011 and concurrently managed Retail Banking Division at VPBank from 2012 to May 2015. Under his leadership, both Divisions’ businesses have been going through historic significant transformation projects and scaling new heights in growing the balance sheet, acquiring new customers and building diversified distribution channels to build a significantly large and profitable customer franchise in the near future. The Consumer Finance Division was spun off from VPBank and became VPBank Finance Company with number 1 position in Vietnam’s consumer finance sector. Mr Kalidas was ultimately appointed as the CEO cum Vice Chairman of VPBank Finance Company (FE Credit) in April 2015.
Mr. Nguyen Dinh Tung
CEO, Orient Commercial Bank (OCB)
Graduating from Maastricht University, Holland, Mr. Tung has over 20 years of experience in the Finance-Banking sector in Vietnam and abroad. He held various positions such as: Deputy General Director - in charge of Business of Maritime Commercial Joint Stock Bank; Country Director of ING Private Banking Singapore; Deputy General Director - in charge of Enterprise Banking; Director of Ho Chi Minh Branch; Director of Southern Area of Vietnam International Commercial Joint Stock Bank. Mr. Nguyen Dinh Tung has been appointed to the position of General Director of Orient Commercial Bank (OCB) since August 24, 2012. Previously, Mr. Tung joined OCB as Deputy General Director in April, 2012, and was appointed as Acting General Director in May, 2012.
Mr. Le Anh Tuan
Deputy CIO and Head of Research at Dragon Capital
Mr. Lê Anh Tuấn is Deputy CIO and head of Research at Dragon Capital. He received a PhD in Economics from Pennsylvania State University in 2008. Lê Anh Tuấn joined Dragon Capital in the same year as Chief Economist, and in 2010 was also appointed Head of Research. In this double capacity, Tuấn supervises virtually all of Dragon Capital’s effort on top-down and bottom-up investment analysis. Tuấn serves on the Investment Committee of several funds managed by Dragon Capital and by its domestic asset-management subsidiary VFM. He was appointed as Deputy CIO in early 2015. In addition to his normal duties at Dragon Capital, Tuấn has led numerous technical assistance projects for the firm with the State Bank of Vietnam, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Treasury, all having a focus on macro policy and capital-markets development. He is a lecturer at the University of Economics, Ho Chi Minh City.
Mr. Nguyen Quang Thuan
Chairman & CEO of StoxPlus
Mr. Thuan is Chairman and CEO of StoxPlus. He is a specialist in the fields of financial advisory services, financial due diligence, corporate valuation and investment management. He has been devoting his life to the creation of innovative financial data and analytics platforms and services for Vietnam market since 2009. Before founding StoxPlus, he was an investment analyst at Vietnam Holding Asset Management with AUM of US$150mn from 2007-2008. Previously, he worked as a manager at Assurance Services and then Transaction Services of PwC (Sydney and Vietnam) from 1998-2008. Mr. Thuan holds a Master of Banking and Finance degree from the University of New South Wales (Australia) and is a UK Fellow Chartered Certified Accountant (FCCA).